Write the conclusion as a hypothesis
A thesis should explain why the market may be mispricing a business and what evidence would close that gap. It is not a description of the company and it is not a list of attractive facts.
- What does the market appear to believe?
- What do you believe differently?
- Which operating evidence would prove or disprove the difference?
Separate drivers from milestones
Drivers are the economic forces behind value creation; milestones are observable signs that those forces are playing out. Distribution expansion can be a driver, while quarterly outlet additions are a milestone.
Pre-commit to disconfirming evidence
Write down the facts that would invalidate the thesis before owning the security. This reduces the temptation to reinterpret every disappointment after the fact.